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Analysis: Geopolitics, prediction markets, tokenization seen as top three drivers of derivatives markets

Change is constant in the derivatives market, but the drivers of change are not. This year's research into market participant opinions revealed that the top three drivers are geopolitical conflict, prediction markets and tokenization. Just as telling, the regulatory agenda, which had been a top concern in the past, dropped to fifth place on this year's list.
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    Customer funds held at US futures brokers climbed to a record $442.7 billion in February 2026, up 26% year-on-year, according to FIA analysis. The surge reflects a sustained period of heightened volatility across global markets, driven by geopolitical developments. A second major driver has been the expansion of retail trading activity in futures markets.
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    Walt Lukken sat down with Jeremy Maletz, head of macro trading and prediction markets at Susquehanna International Group. While retail trading in prediction markets has captured the headlines, Jeremy shared why Susquehanna jumped into these markets, what it took to scale up, how they navigate the myriad contracts and the legal uncertainty surrounding prediction markets. For any institutions interested in learning more, use the Contact FIA form on FIA.org to connect with Jeremy.

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