Change is constant in the derivatives market, but the drivers of change are not. This year's research into market participant opinions revealed that the top three drivers are geopolitical conflict, prediction markets and tokenization. Just as telling, the regulatory agenda, which had been a top concern in the past, dropped to fifth place on this year's list.
The findings are based on an assessment of industry sentiment conducted by Crisil Coalition Greenwich in partnership with FIA. The poll was conducted on an anonymous basis during the month of January 2026, and 220 individuals responded.
This article previews three of the most salient findings. A longer and more detailed report will be published in the near future that will cover such issues as the regional breakdown of growth expectations, the adoption of artificial intelligence in trading and clearing functions, and the key factors in buyside relationships with clearing brokers.
Geopolitics
The global geopolitical environment, which has been a consistent driver of derivatives market activity over the past few years, has become increasingly less stable. In January, when we asked the respondents for their views on the main drivers of change, we were looking back at a tumultuous 2025, with Russia's war against Ukraine dragging into its fourth year and Israel conducting a military offensive in Gaza. Since then, the geopolitical environment has become even more volatile – the US has intervened in Venezuela and joined Israel in an attack on Iran.
These conflicts have caused volatility to spike across many markets, asset prices to move in unexpected ways, and the cost of trading to fluctuate. This naturally concerns asset managers, commodity producers and derivatives market end users that are exposed to huge swings in the value of their assets and the cost of their inputs.
It should come as no surprise, therefore, that end users were more concerned about geopolitical stability relative to other segments of the industry. Sixty-three percent of those respondents cited it as the top driver for change.
In contrast, the other two segments of the respondents were more focused on other drivers of change. The intermediary segment, which includes executing brokers, clearing brokers and swap dealers, ranked it as the second most important driver after tokenization. The third segment, which includes infrastructure operators such as exchanges and service providers such as technology vendors, ranked it as the third most important driver after tokenization and the rise of prediction markets.
For exchanges and intermediaries, geopolitical conflict generates both challenges and opportunities. An increase in volatility puts a strain on their operations and adds more risk to the system, but it also leads to an increase in trading volume and open interest, which is good for their business models. That was certainly the case in 2025, which saw record levels of trading activity in many futures markets, and that trend is continuing into this year.
Times of stress are when derivatives show their true value. Whether used to speculate on market change or protect against uncertainty, derivatives markets thrive when volatility reigns.
Prediction Markets
Our research indicates that prediction markets and tokenization, which were a minor part of the story just a few years ago, are now top of mind for the derivatives industry.
Prediction markets have arguably become the biggest story in derivatives markets since bitcoin futures launched in 2017. The new regulatory environment in the United States has become more friendly to these contracts, and the recent addition of sports-based event contracts is fueling exceptionally rapid growth. On the other hand, our research shows that there are concerns about reputation risk. Prediction markets can be used to wager on everything from basketball games to armed conflict, creating an intersection that worries some market participants.
Thirty-eight percent of respondents state that prediction markets encourage gambling and undermine the reputation of the futures market, with a plurality of both end users and intermediaries stating as much. Even more telling is that there has been a year-over-year increase in negativity about these markets. The number of respondents with a negative view on prediction markets increased 10 percentage points from a year ago (from 28% to 38%). This may be a result of the rapid growth of prediction markets, which has magnified concerns about the potential for insider trading and market manipulation.
Judgments aside, prediction markets are becoming a more integral part of the futures industry. Nearly half of respondents stated they are watching these markets with interest to potentially enter them, and an additional 15% said their firms are planning to enter them in the near future.
At present, activity in prediction markets is dominated by retail traders. Consequently, institutional investors and others on the buy side may view these markets as too shallow for trading. On the other hand, they do think the data from these markets are useful inputs. In a separate study, Coalition Greenwich found that 73% of market structure experts think institutional investors will soon find tangible value in data generated by prediction markets. For a deeper discussion, please see Coalition Greenwich's report Prediction markets: It’s all about the data.
Tokenization
Tokenization and digital assets are another hot-button issue for both the entire financial services industry and the derivatives industry specifically. Intermediaries believe that tokenization is the most important issue facing the industry, ahead of geopolitics and prediction markets. End users, however, are more sanguine about the impact of tokenization, with only 16% citing it as a top issue for the derivatives market. Given the importance to other market participants, end users should not overlook the role that tokenization will play in the market.
Another signal on the importance of tokenization came from a question we asked about various factors that could be "game changers" in the trading and clearing workflow. The respondents in our study ranked tokenization ahead of AI, a sign that this technology is now top of mind across the industry. Even end-users echoed this theme. While end users may be more skeptical about tokenization overall, 34% believe that incorporating it into collateral management could be a game changer, nearly the same percentage as AI.
Tokenization can improve multiple elements of the collateral management process, including operational efficiency and capital efficiency. Tokenization also can enable the movement of collateral on weekends and holidays, a critical step in managing risk as derivatives markets move to 24x7 trading.
A few years ago the promise of tokenization seemed purely theoretical. No longer. There are many initiatives now under way to explore the use of tokenization to enhance the collateral process. Participants in this ecosystem include both digital-native firms, such as Canton Network and Circle, and traditional financial market intermediaries, such as DTCC and Tradeweb.
Tokenization is especially relevant for exchanges, clearinghouses, other infrastructure operators and service providers. Fifty-six percent of the respondents from these firms cite tokenization as the main game changer, which arises from their role in building and supporting tokenization capabilities for the industry. Intermediaries and end users are more split between the potential of AI and tokenization.
By contrast, in research conducted in 2023, the development and adoption of global operational standards was considered the biggest game changer—this year, it is third. Both tokenization and AI can help improve operations; the focus on how to achieve operational improvements has shifted away from standards to new technologies.
While a backdrop of global uncertainty cements the importance of derivatives for investors, end users and traders, innovation is setting the stage for what might become a transformational period for the industry. Event contracts, barely visible only a few years ago, are now one of the industry’s fastest growing segments. And tokenization, which was virtually unheard of only a decade ago, now seems poised for mainstream adoption. The final outcomes in all cases are unknown, of course, but the impact of these and the other items cited by our study participants will be critical to the future of the derivatives market.
Stephen Bruel is a Senior Analyst on the Market Structure & Technology team at Crisil Coalition Greenwich.
METHODOLOGY
This article is based on interviews conducted between January and February 2026 with 220 derivatives market participants and experts sourced from the Crisil Coalition Greenwich network and the FIA community. The research includes findings from 66 people working at clearing firms, brokers, swap dealers, and other intermediaries; 82 working at asset managers, hedge funds and other end-users; and 72 working at exchanges, clearinghouses, other market infrastructure operators and service providers. The majority are focused on exchange-traded derivatives, but many are involved with cleared OTC derivatives, such as interest-rate swaps. Questions explored the key drivers of change in the derivatives market, the impact of innovation and the relationships between market participants.
