MarketVoice News
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Prediction markets stir debate as exchanges push for clear rules
Prediction markets are rapidly gaining traction in financial markets, but the sector’s future may hinge on how regulators ultimately define them. The heads of several of the world’s largest exchanges debated the issue during a panel at FIA Boca, where the fast growth of event-based trading has collided with lingering questions about whether such contracts are financial products or simply gambling.
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Analysis: Geopolitics, prediction markets and tokenization seen as top three drivers of derivatives market change in 2026
Change is constant in the derivatives market, but the drivers of change are not. This year's research into market participant opinions revealed that the top three drivers are geopolitical conflict, prediction markets and tokenization. Just as telling, the regulatory agenda, which had been a top concern in the past, dropped to fifth place on this year's list. The findings are based on an assessment of industry sentiment conducted by Crisil Coalition Greenwich in partnership with FIA.
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Retail-focused precious metals derivatives trading surges, outpacing institutional growth
Retail investors fuelled a sharp rise in trading activity across precious metals derivatives in 2025, while institutional benchmark futures contracts saw comparatively muted growth.
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Viewpoint: FIA in Brussels – In-person meetings, outsized impact
Over the course of two-plus days, we met with policymakers at the European Commission, several EU Member States’ representations, key members of the European Parliament and their staff, and leaders at the European Securities and Markets Authority and European Central Bank. We reiterated the story of the global cleared derivatives industry, how we agree with the push to simplify the regulatory burden on our members and discussed centralised supervision.
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Global ETD trading fell in 2025 as India crackdown hits options volume
Global trading in exchange-traded derivatives fell in 2025, largely due to a sharp pullback in equity options trading in India following regulators' moves to curb speculative retail activity. Even as global volumes fell, open interest – a measure of outstanding positions – told a different story, underscoring continued demand for derivatives as tools for hedging and price discovery.
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Viewpoint: Five mega trends for 2026
To help frame many of the discussions at this year's Asset Management Derivatives Conference, Walt Lukken shared five trends that matter to both the buyside and sellside.
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All roads lead to DLT: ECB advances Pontes and Appia
Europe’s push to enable settlement of DLT-based transactions in central bank money is moving from experimentation to implementation, with the European Central Bank launching a twin-track programme – Pontes and Appia – to bring tokenised settlement closer to reality. Speakers at FIA’s Brussels Forum earlier this month said the shift marks a significant step beyond recent exploratory trials, signalling growing confidence that distributed ledger technology can address long-standing inefficiencies in Europe’s collateral and settlement landscape.
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EU capital markets reform takes centre stage at FIA Brussels Forum
Europe’s push to strengthen its capital markets took centre stage at an FIA forum in Brussels this month, with policymakers and market participants examining the European Commission’s Market Integration and Supervision Package and proposed reforms to ESMA’s supervisory powers.
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People News – January / February 2026
Appointments, promotions and other people news in the derivatives industry
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CFTC announces new prediction markets rule process
In his first public remarks since assuming the top position at the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, Mike Selig announced a reset of the regulatory landscape for prediction markets.
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