MarketVoice News
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Insight: Oil Prices: A Study in Hedging Against Unpredictable Prices
Watching oil prices crash below $30 a barrel is a sobering lesson in the limits of our ability to predict the future. I was at the helm of the CFTC in 2008 when the price of oil topped $145 a barrel. At the time, certain members of the “Peak Oil” crowd were predicting $200 per barrel by that year’s end. As recently as last year, the U.S. Energy Information Administration forecast that Brent crude oil prices would average $58 per barrel in 2015 and $75 per barrel in 2016. EIA is now predicting Brent prices will average $38 per barrel in 2016, almost 50% lower than last year’s forecast.
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EU Regulatory Report Card: End-Users Decry Cumulative Impact of Regulation
In the eight years since the financial crisis, the derivatives industry has been playing a game of slow motion table tennis as it reacts to the swathe of new rules that regulators and politicians around the world have been batting its way in a bid to prevent a recurrence.
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MAC Swaps: An Analysis of Trading Trends in 2015
Several years ago a group of buy-side firms came together in an effort to lead the interest rate swap market towards greater standardization of contract terms.
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Swap Futures
Eris Exchange has undertaken a massive expansion of its interest rate swap futures, doubling the range of maturities available and introducing a new set of forward-starting contracts.
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Stronger Links with China
Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing unveiled a new three-year strategic plan in January that sets ambitious goals for expanding its equity derivatives business, expanding the product services offered by the London Metal Exchange, entering the physical commodity markets in mainland China and introducing derivatives based on Chinese interest rates.
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People - March 2016
Tullett Prebon named veteran futures industry executive Nicolas Breteau (pictured) as chief commercial officer, based in London.
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Open Outcry
The London Metal Exchange in February unveiled its newly built Ring, the exchange's open-outcry trading floor, after relocating to Finsbury Square in London.
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U.S. regulators seek market feedback on treasury market evolution
On Jan. 19 the Treasury Department issued a request for information (RFI) on Treasury market structure, including both cash and futures trading.
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New Products
The Reserve Bank of India released a report in February recommending the introduction of interest rate options so that banks and corporates can hedge their interest rate risks. The report, which was drafted by a working group constituted by the central bank, said the market should start with relatively simple products such as calls, puts, caps, floors, collars and swaptions. The report also recommended allowing these products to be offered as both exchange-traded products and over-the-counter derivatives. The central bank said final guidelines will be issued by the end of March, taking into account feedback on the report.
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Liquidity Trends
Central bank officials working under the auspices of the Bank for International Settlements released two reports on Jan. 21 that analyze trends in global fixed income markets.
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